Posted on Jun 16, 2010 - 5:00am by Marshall J. Gruskin in Business, Driver Shortage, Economy, News, Politics, Trucking
Before I talk trucking, I just want to briefly mention what I’m referring to as the mess after the mess. That is the BP oil rig explosion and ongoing pipe leak at 5000 ft. below the Gulf. As this prime example of corporate big business stupidity and irresponsibility continues, the “onsite” Federal crisis overseer, 4-Star Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen, had this to say yesterday regarding the response and cleanup: “I think they’re adequate to the assumptions in the plans. I think you need to go back and question the assumptions.” This my LOTR readers is just unacceptable. When the President was sitting on a waterside porch down in Louisiana yesterday in front of the media doing one of his folksy “down home” no tie – no jacket cum by ya’s, he said “Thad” something bla bla bla. It was Bush/Brownie all over again. We’ve heard all this before. Same place, different face. Tonight the President will address the nation at 8pm. This better be good.
OK – let’s talk trucking. I was doing research on what a truck driver in China earns. I’m also real curious about what the regs, if any, are over there as well as the working conditions. Recently, there has been labor “unrest”. Strikes, suicides and protests. All very unusual for a communist country that is “pretending” to behave as a Capitalist Democracy with serious caveats that limit how their billion+ “citizens” can think and live. How this latest demonstration of “freedom” will affect the cost of producing goods there for the US remains to be seen. Will it be that it would be “better” to just manufacturer American goods in America? Wouldn’t that be interesting. What a concept. Anyway, I had no specific luck with my Google query and my thought remains that Chinese trucking and logistics is ripe for my brand of journalism, but one has to go there to get answers.
Interestingly enough, the result I came up did not make reference to China, but the driver shortage here in the US. The driver shortage? The findings were dated April 21 of this year from Reuters. The source was a consulting company by the name of FTR Associates out of Nashville. Noel Perry, one of their consultants, said “As the marketplace expands, even slowly as we are forecasting, there will be a driver shortage of about 180,000 in 2010 and 500,000 in 2011 as the recovering economy increases demand and the new regulations crimp the supply. Reuters added: “As the recovery takes hold, potential drivers find better and more rooted jobs in construction and manufacturing that they prefer to driving. Carriers will also find it difficult to replace the older generation that retires. UPS, recently said it expects 25,000 of its baby boomer drivers to retire over the next five years. And new regulations such as the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s Comprehensive Safety Analysis (CSA) 2010, to be introduced by federal regulators later this year, could affect the driver pool.”
Then on May 25th, FTR reports: “For fleets needing additional drivers the constraint will be in their ability to hire and train prospects from the available labor pool. While there are sufficient numbers of experienced drivers looking for work the fleets have pared down their hiring and training departments so severely during the recent downturn that most will be challenged to process a sufficient number of drivers to fill previously parked trucks. FTR estimates that the industry’s hiring ability has been cut by one third.”
For the record, I do know if there is any “connection” between this FTR and OOIDA or the ATA. I do know that FTR does employ folks that graduated from Harvard and MIT. OK, but you don’t need a Ivy League education to come to come to these conclusions. Why? Because we’ve heard this all before. It’s not rocket science. I don’t necessarily agree with Reuters or FTR’s assessments. I do know that many OTR drivers will leave trucking because the negative effect the working conditions and inadequate compensation have on their health and personal life. I don’t think they’re headed into construction or manufacturing – they’re just going anywhere they can to get away from 4-6 weeks OTR earning just about the minimum wage per hour.
We all know that there are many people who spend a lot of money to go to trucking school, then find a job with Werner, England or some other 3rd rate carrier and leave within a month or sooner. The “lifestyle” just isn’t for them. And we also know that there are 5 more “recruits” waiting right behind them to take a stab at OTR trucking. Let’s not forget the famous words of the typical trucking “suit” - “drivers are a dime a dozen.” We’re like the robotic soldier drones in an internet sci-fi game. Blast, blast, you’re vaporized. Zip, another drone pops up to try to kill the mother ship. Photon torpedoes, another drone falls. And another pops up. And on and on goes the cycle. We know that however long you’ve been with the carrier, five seconds after park your truck and turn in the keys, they’ll be some other %^&* ready to carry on supposed driver shortage or not.
As far as recruiting and training drivers those functions have always experienced high turnover not unlike the driver “pool.” I know for a fact that recruiting and training drivers requires no unusual skills or higher education. That is quite evident if you look at the lack of necessary OTR skills a new driver has coming out of the typical large carrier training/orientation program. It’s a small miracle if the new driver is literate enough to type a message on the QUALCOM. You can go through truck driving school and not know how to fuel or understand how to slide your axles to be legal. Reuters also mentions driver availability and shortages vis a vis the new CSA 2010 regs. Well, all that still remains to be seen.
But have we not heard all this before? Talk about déjà vu. Trucking is not only a toxic industry it is a colorful carousel with the participants going round and round trying to remain on one of the colorful horses and attempting – but usually failing to grasp the brass ring. You try again and again buying more tickets to make another attempt. But it just doesn’t change. Same problems, same complaints, same pay and same do-nothing faces. Round and round. Stop and buy another ticket for another opportunity. Now after a two year de-cession FTC/Reuters is “forecasting” a driver shortage. You’re kidding right? We’ve seen and heard it all before.
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